Today's market movers
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Chart walkthrough: the MSFT levels I'm watching into the close
A short chart walkthrough of the MSFT levels that matter today.
NVDA: the bottleneck moved downstream
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
AI capex is finally a cash-flow story
Depreciation is about to show up in earnings, and the market hasn't modelled it.
Foundry pricing power is quietly extraordinary
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
Earnings week: where the premium is mispriced
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
Inference cost curves are collapsing
Cost per token fell faster than anyone modelled. That changes the margin story.
Net revenue retention is the whole thesis
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
Diesel cracks are telling a different story
The barrel says slowdown. The distillate market says otherwise.
GOOGL: the search moat argument has changed
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
Deposit costs have peaked
The repricing cycle is done. NIM expansion from here is mechanical.
Payments volume growth is decoupling from retail
Cross-border is carrying the whole print now.
What a ten-year holder actually underwrites
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
The memory cycle turned before anyone noticed
Contract pricing bottomed two quarters ago. Equities are still pricing the trough.
Natural gas storage is misleading everyone
The absolute number looks bearish. The regional split doesn't.
AAPL: services margin is the whole story
Hardware pays the rent. Services is the business.
The trade-down is real and it isn't over
Private label share is still taking ground in categories that never used to move.
New trade for NasDaQ
Looking to buy on open and fade and falls off, I’ll be sending buy and sell alerts on the live trade tracker today to make it easier to follow.
OXY: capital discipline is the alpha
The market is pricing a recession the physical data doesn't show yet.
JPM: NIM has bottomed
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on JPM. Subscribe to read on.
The DDOG cohort data nobody cites
Durable growth plus FCF margin is a profile the market still discounts.
The EPD setup the barrel bears miss
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on EPD. Subscribe to read on.
Why AMZN traffic is inflecting
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on AMZN. Subscribe to read on.
MDT — pipeline value the Street ignores
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on MDT. Subscribe to read on.
O: the cap-rate repricing is mostly done (Part 2)
The distribution is well-covered even under a conservative occupancy case.
WMT — the share-gain story
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on WMT. Subscribe to read on.
NET — consumption is stabilising
Net revenue retention is basing, and that's the variable that re-rates the stock.
The SNOW cohort data nobody cites
Durable growth plus FCF margin is a profile the market still discounts.
Reading ASML through the equipment data
HBM demand is pulling the whole supply chain forward, and ASML sits in the path.
LULU: pricing power is intact
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on LULU. Subscribe to read on.
CRM: net retention is the whole story
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on CRM. Subscribe to read on.
Why NVDA is early-cycle, not late
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on NVDA. Subscribe to read on.
AMZN earnings preview: what I'm watching
Ad reacceleration plus margin discipline is a combination the market keeps doubting.