JPM
FreeDeposit costs have peaked
The repricing cycle is done. NIM expansion from here is mechanical.
JPM16 Jul· 5 min
Tomas Rivera Verified
7 notes · 19 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Regional banks, NIM, credit normalisation, and the payments stack. Balance-sheet risk in plain English.
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Notes
7V
FreePayments volume growth is decoupling from retail
Cross-border is carrying the whole print now.
V16 Jul· 5 min
JPM
SubscribersJPM: NIM has bottomed
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on JPM. Subscribe to read on.
JPM25 May· 9 min
PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared
Credit normalisation is being mistaken for credit deterioration — there's a gap.
PYPL10 May· 5 min
PYPL
FreePYPL — deposits are stickier than feared (Part 2)
Deposit betas are behaving better than the bear case modeled.
PYPL2 Apr· 7 min
BAC
FreeReading BAC into the next print
Net interest margin looks to have troughed, and the market hasn't repriced it.
BAC29 Mar· 9 min
PYPL
SubscribersReading PYPL into the next print
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on PYPL. Subscribe to read on.
PYPL11 Mar· 5 min
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Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares+140.0%
Cumulative Return · 7 Closed
71%
Win Rate
+42.0%
Best Call
11d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 10 in 30 Days
AMD Call $226.06
$6.63 → $6.42 · Jul 9 – Jul 24 · 16d Hold · exp Jul 31
-3.1%
XOM Long
$90.85 → $108.02 · Jul 18 – Jul 23 · 5d Hold
+18.9%
V Long
$74.21 → $70.49 · Jun 24 – Jul 13 · 20d Hold
-5.0%
V Long
$352.60 → $366.20 · Jul 7 – Jul 10 · 3d Hold
+3.9%
INTC Long
$405.37 → $503.23 · Jun 28 – Jul 8 · 10d Hold
+24.1%
GOOGL Call $277.59
$10.94 → $9.97 · Jul 2 – Jul 7 · 5d Hold · exp Jul 14
-8.8%
ASML Long
$115.12 → $163.50 · Jun 20 – Jul 5 · 15d Hold
+42.0%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Long
$136.02 → $131.40 · Jun 27 – Jul 3 · 7d Hold
-3.4%
COIN Call $132.49
$6.31 → $5.89 · Jun 15 – Jul 3 · 18d Hold · exp Jul 10
-6.7%
SCHW Long
$208.48 → $250.47 · Jun 12 – Jul 1 · 19d Hold
+20.1%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
-6.2%
Avg Modeled Return · 3 Closed
0%
Win Rate
-3.1%
Best Call
13d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.