AAPLLoadingMSFTLoadingNVDALoadingGOOGLLoadingAMZNLoadingMETALoadingTSLALoadingAMDLoadingNFLXLoadingCOINLoadingPYPLLoadingSPYLoadingQQQLoadingIWMLoadingJPMLoadingVLoadingDISLoadingKOLoadingJNJLoadingNKELoadingXOMLoadingASMLLoading
Tomas Rivera

Banks, payments & fintech

Tomas Rivera

Regional banks, NIM, credit normalisation, and the payments stack. Balance-sheet risk in plain English.

Verified@bankspread18 subscribersSince May 2026

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Track record

· last 30 days Verified
Shares
+17.2%Verified cumulative return · 9 closed
67%Win rate
+1.9%Avg return
+7.9%Best call
+4.0%Avg win
-2.4%Avg loss
2WStreak
9dAvg hold

Closed calls

9 in 30 days
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)weeklyLong
$135.37 → $136.09 · Jun 4–Jun 5 · 1d hold
+0.5%
Copper (CPER)weeklyLong
$450.68 → $457.55 · May 19–Jun 4 · 16d hold
+1.5%
Gold (GLD)dailyShort
$464.73 → $479.47 · May 25–May 27 · 2d hold
-3.2%
Silver (SLV)weeklyLong
$78.31 → $83.95 · May 24–May 26 · 2d hold
+7.2%
Copper (CPER)Long
$87.54 → $90.78 · May 6–May 25 · 19d hold
+3.7%
Russell 2000 (IWM)Short
$407.27 → $395.06 · May 8–May 25 · 17d hold
+3.0%
Dow Jones (DIA)weeklyLong
$77.66 → $77.39 · May 7–May 25 · 18d hold
-0.4%
Natural Gas (UNG)monthlyLong
$249.97 → $240.85 · May 17–May 24 · 7d hold
-3.6%
Natural Gas (UNG)Long
$348.53 → $376.15 · May 17–May 20 · 3d hold
+7.9%
+Shares vs options — what's the difference?
SharesYou own the stock. The return is the underlying's move (entry → exit), linear, and you can hold as long as you like. Steadier, lower leverage.
OptionsYou buy a contract (a call or put at a strike, expiring on a date). The return is on the premium — leveraged (a small stock move can be a huge % on the option) and time-sensitive (value decays toward expiry). Higher risk and reward; here the premium is modeled, not self-reported.

Live calls

1 open
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5 notes Financials brief, weekly1-6 months average holdDefined risk
PaidFinancialsJPMMay 25

JPM: NIM has bottomed

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on JPM. Subscribe to read on.

ShortMedium convictionDefined risk risk 9 min read
JPJPMLoading delayed quote
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FreeFinancialsPYPLMay 10

PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared

Credit normalisation is being mistaken for credit deterioration — there's a gap.

ShortHigh convictionDefined risk risk 5 min read
PYPYPLLoading delayed quote
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FreeFinancialsPYPLApr 2

PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared (Part 2)

Deposit betas are behaving better than the bear case modeled.

Neutral / hedgedMedium convictionDefined risk risk 7 min read
PYPYPLLoading delayed quote
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FreeFinancialsBACMar 29

Reading BAC into the next print

Net interest margin looks to have troughed, and the market hasn't repriced it.

LongHigh convictionDefined risk risk 9 min read
BABACLoading delayed quote
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PaidFinancialsPYPLMar 11

Reading PYPL into the next print

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on PYPL. Subscribe to read on.

LongHigh convictionDefined risk risk 5 min read
PYPYPLLoading delayed quote
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