FreeJPM5 min read
Deposit costs have peaked
JPM
Delayed
The thesis
Deposit betas topped out two quarters ago and asset yields keep rolling higher into the repricing. That gap is where net interest margin comes from.
What I'm watching
- Deposit beta by segment
- Loan growth vs the securities book
- Credit normalisation in card, not CRE headlines
Positioning
Long, 2-3 quarters. Conviction: Medium. Banks are levered to one bad credit surprise. Position accordingly.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
6 commentsSaved. The watch-list section alone is worth it.
Been waiting for someone to write this up properly. Thanks.
How are you sizing this relative to the rest of the book?
Small addition — the peer group is showing the same trend with a lag.
This lines up with what I'm seeing in the JPM tape.
What's the invalidation level you're using on JPM?