FreeV5 min read
Payments volume growth is decoupling from retail
V
Delayed
The thesis
Domestic volume tracks nominal retail sales and always has. Cross-border grows at a multiple of it and carries far better economics.
What I'm watching
- Cross-border volume growth ex-currency
- Incentive expense as a percentage of gross revenue
- Whether travel normalisation has actually finished
Positioning
Long, 2-3 quarters. Conviction: Medium. Regulatory pressure on interchange is a permanent overhang.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
5 commentsSaved. The watch-list section alone is worth it.
The second point is the one most people are going to skip over.
Are you expressing this in equity or options?
Counterpoint: positioning is already crowded on this. The edge is thinner than it looks.
Fair pushback. I'd agree if positioning were more extreme, but the flow data doesn't show that yet.