PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared

The thesis

Credit normalisation is being mistaken for credit deterioration — there's a gap.

Deposit betas are behaving better than the bear case modeled.

What I'm watching

• net charge-off trend
• PYPL NIM vs guide
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on PYPL, 1-6 months horizon. Conviction: High. A credit shock breaks the thesis; I keep it sized.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.