Index concentration is a portfolio decision you did not make
The index traded at 764.38, -0.32% today. Buying the market used to mean diversification. It is worth checking whether it still does.
Free 3 min read
SPYRSP
Stock
SPY
SPY
Delayed
Notes mentioning SPY
12Small caps and the refinancing wall nobody schedules around
It traded at 279.98, -0.14% today. The gap between large and small is a balance sheet story before it is a growth story.
Free 4 min read
IWMRSP
Flow is not a signal, it is a question
It traded at 745.04, +0.32% on the session. Large options prints get reported as conviction. Most of them are somebody hedging.
Free 3 min read
QQQSPY
Equal weight is the only index chart I trust this year
The equal-weight S&P sat at 219.02, +0.10% on the day. Cap weight tells you what a handful of names did. This tells you what the market did.
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RSPSPY
Breadth is repairing, and repaired breadth is what long advances run on
After a stretch where a few names carried the index, more members are participating again. That is what long advances are built on.
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SPYRSP
Cheap downside protection says complacency, and complacency can last
When index puts are cheap relative to calls, nobody is worried. That is a warning sign, and warning signs can stay lit for a long time.
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A flat volatility curve says the market has stopped relaxing
The VIX curve usually slopes upward: calm now, more uncertainty later. When it flattens, near-term worry has caught up with the long-run kind.
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VIXYSPY
When dealers are long gamma, the index grinds instead of lurching
When dealers hold options that make them buy dips and sell rallies, their hedging calms the index. That calm tends to favour a slow grind higher.
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QQQSPY
Small caps need two things at once, and usually get one
The two conditions I track for small caps, and how rarely they line up.
Paid 2 min read
IWMSPY
A rally led by the weakest balance sheets is a squeeze, not a cycle
Small caps can rally hard when the most indebted and most shorted names lead. That is a different animal from a rally built on improving earnings.
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IWMSPY
Rotation inside an index is not money leaving it
When leadership rotates from one group of large names to another, the index can look shaky without anyone selling the market.
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QQQSPY
Narrowing leadership ends before the index notices
An index can keep rising while fewer and fewer of its members do the work. That narrowing usually ends the advance before the headline level shows any strain.
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QQQSPY