Why I'm fading this IWM rally

The thesis

The melt-up is running on thin participation, which rarely ends cleanly.

Factor rotation is quietly repricing leadership; the headline level hides it.

What I'm watching

• IWM advance-decline line
• VIX term structure
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on IWM, 1-3 weeks horizon. Conviction: Medium. Trends persist longer than they should — I trade the level, not the opinion.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.