Breadth is repairing under the surface
Equal-weight has stopped underperforming, and that usually leads.
6 notes · 32 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Market internals over narratives. Breadth, factor rotation, and where the index is fragile.
Equal-weight has stopped underperforming, and that usually leads.
Flat term structure into a known catalyst is a setup, not a warning.
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The melt-up is running on thin participation, which rarely ends cleanly.
Index strength is masking deteriorating breadth — fewer names are doing the work.
The melt-up is running on thin participation, which rarely ends cleanly.
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Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.