The MRNA binary I'm sizing for
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on MRNA. Subscribe to read on.
MRNA29 Apr· 11 min
Hana Sato Verified
3 notes · 19 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Clinical readouts, FDA calendars, and basket risk management for binary events.
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Notes
3VRTX
SubscribersVRTX: adoption curve is steepening
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on VRTX. Subscribe to read on.
VRTX22 Apr· 10 min
Why MRNA's readout is asymmetric
Pipeline option value is being given away at the current multiple.
MRNA27 Mar· 10 min
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Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares+280.3%
Cumulative Return · 9 Closed
67%
Win Rate
+39.9%
Best Call
11d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 11 in 30 Days
INTC Call $406.29
$12.86 → $12.21 · Jul 10 – Jul 26 · 16d Hold · exp Aug 2
-5.0%
MSFT Long
$446.02 → $412.48 · Jul 1 – Jul 21 · 20d Hold
-7.5%
AVGO Long
$436.63 → $551.68 · Jul 5 – Jul 12 · 7d Hold
+26.4%
COIN Long
$466.47 → $652.40 · Jul 1 – Jul 12 · 11d Hold
+39.9%
GS Short
$335.67 → $202.51 · Jul 2 – Jul 11 · 9d Hold
+39.7%
AMZN Long
$204.69 → $190.38 · Jun 25 – Jul 10 · 15d Hold
-7.0%
S&P 500 (SPY) Put $306.45
$5.99 → $5.53 · Jun 27 – Jul 9 · 12d Hold · exp Jul 16
-7.6%
XOM Long
$285.64 → $268.96 · Jun 21 – Jul 9 · 18d Hold
-5.8%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Long
$310.88 → $373.46 · Jun 29 – Jul 4 · 5d Hold
+20.1%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Long
$368.71 → $440.61 · Jun 26 – Jul 2 · 7d Hold
+19.5%
AMZN Long
$206.29 → $273.35 · Jun 23 – Jul 2 · 9d Hold
+32.5%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
-6.3%
Avg Modeled Return · 2 Closed
0%
Win Rate
-5.0%
Best Call
14d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.