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Kenji Aoyama

The chip cycle

Kenji Aoyama

Foundry capacity, memory pricing, and equipment demand. Timing the semi cycle without the hype.

Verified@chipcycle56 subscribersSince May 2026

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4 notes Cycle calls since 20192-8 weeks average holdOptions spreads
FreeSemiconductorsASMLMay 17

Reading ASML through the equipment data

HBM demand is pulling the whole supply chain forward, and ASML sits in the path.

ShortHigh convictionOptions spreads risk 6 min read
ASASMLLoading delayed quote
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PaidSemiconductorsNVDAMay 13

Why NVDA is early-cycle, not late

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on NVDA. Subscribe to read on.

ShortMedium convictionOptions spreads risk 7 min read
NVNVDALoading delayed quote
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FreeSemiconductorsASMLMay 1

ASML: foundry capacity is the tell

Lead times and utilisation say we're earlier in the cycle than sentiment implies.

LongMedium convictionOptions spreads risk 9 min read
ASASMLLoading delayed quote
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PaidSemiconductorsAMDApr 23

The AMD inventory turn I'm watching

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on AMD. Subscribe to read on.

Neutral / hedgedHigh convictionOptions spreads risk 8 min read
AMAMDLoading delayed quote
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