FreeASML9 min read
ASML: foundry capacity is the tell
ASML
Delayed
The thesis
Lead times and utilisation say we're earlier in the cycle than sentiment implies.
Equipment bookings inflect before revenue — the data is turning.
What I'm watching
- WFE bookings trend
- WFE bookings trend
- A clean move through the level I flag below
Positioning
Long on ASML, 2-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: Medium. A demand pause would hit sentiment first, fundamentals second.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
2 commentsGood timing — was just reworking my ASML sizing this morning.
The second point is the one most people are going to skip over.