FreeSemiconductorsASML9 min read
ASML: foundry capacity is the tell
ASML chart · D
The thesis
Lead times and utilisation say we're earlier in the cycle than sentiment implies.
Equipment bookings inflect before revenue — the data is turning.
What I'm watching
- WFE bookings trend
- WFE bookings trend
- A clean move through the level I flag below
Positioning
Long on ASML, 2-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: Medium. A demand pause would hit sentiment first, fundamentals second.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
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