FreeMU6 min read
The memory cycle turned before anyone noticed
MU
Delayed
The thesis
Memory is the most honest cycle in semis — pricing tells you everything. Contract prices bottomed and started climbing while the equity kept de-rating.
What I'm watching
- DRAM and NAND contract price direction
- Supplier capex discipline holding
- HBM allocation as a share of the mix
Positioning
Long, 1-3 quarters. Conviction: Medium. Memory cycles overshoot in both directions. Respect the volatility.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
6 commentsThe second point is the one most people are going to skip over.
Clearest framing of MU I've read this month.
Are you expressing this in equity or options?
Equity for now. I'll look at options if the vol comes in.
For anyone tracking this, the data drops Thursday pre-market.
Reasonable thesis but I think MU is priced for most of this already.