SHY
FreeFront end trades are a bet on the calendar, not the economy
Short duration traded at 81.12, -0.01% on the session. The two-year is arithmetic on meeting dates, and it gets discussed as though it were a growth forecast.
SHY29 Sept· 3 min
Viktor ReinholtDemo account
Two decades trading sovereign bonds. Curve trades, auction reads, and what the long end is really telling you.
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- @ratesdesk
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- May 2026
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Track Record
Prices recorded by CrumpertLast 30 days
−4.5%
Return across 10 closed calls · 2 closed up
GOVTLong
$22.21 → $21.94 · Sep 17 – Sep 25
TLTLong
$82.19 → $81.75 · Sep 8 – Sep 23
TLTLong
$80.93 → $81.75 · Sep 14 – Sep 22
Show all 10 calls
TIPLong
$105.84 → $105.27 · Sep 11 – Sep 18
TIPLong
$106.80 → $105.27 · Sep 9 – Sep 18
GOVTLong
$22.34 → $22.12 · Sep 2 – Sep 15
IEFShort
$92.25 → $91.18 · Sep 4 – Sep 10
VGLTLong
$52.56 → $52.50 · Sep 1 – Sep 9
EDVLong
$60.89 → $60.29 · Aug 27 – Sep 4
GOVTLong
$22.55 → $22.35 · Aug 26 – Sep 3
Live calls are for subscribers. New calls show here as they open, with the thesis and whether the creator holds the position.
These are this creator’s own past results. Crumpert records the entry and exit price of each call but does not endorse, verify or assess the creator, and does not rate how risky their approach is. Opinion, not advice; not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Prices are delayed third-party data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Posts
6TLT
FreeThe long end is not pricing a recession, whatever the headlines say
Long duration traded at 82.19, -0.12% today. A steepening curve and a recession bid are not the same thing, and conflating them costs money.
TLT8 Sept· 4 min
TLT
FreeSupply fears are already in the long end
Heavy government issuance is the reason given for high long yields. By now the market has priced a great deal of it, which changes the balance of risk.
TLT18 Jul· 2 min
Inflation-protected bonds still lose when real yields rise
Buyers of inflation-protected bonds think they have bought safety from inflation. They have also bought duration, and real yields can move against them.
TIP23 May· 2 min
SHY
SubscribersShort-dated bonds reward patience when the next move is a cut
The front-end pricing I track against the likely path of policy.
SHY21 May· 2 min
Real yields are the honest measure of how tight policy is
The real yield levels I think separate tight from neutral.
TIP5 May· 2 min