What a steeper curve means for TIP

The thesis

Liquidity is tightening at the margin even as risk assets pretend otherwise.

The curve has flattened past what growth justifies — I'm leaning the other way.

What I'm watching

• 2s10s past the recent range
• TIP reaction into the auction
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on TIP, 1-4 weeks horizon. Conviction: High. Policy surprises cut both ways; defined risk only.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.