FreeTLT7 min read
The steepener has more room than consensus thinks
TLT
Delayed
The thesis
Supply is heavy, the buyer base is less price-insensitive than it was, and a term premium near zero was never the steady state.
What I'm watching
- Auction tails at the long end
- Foreign official holdings
- Whether the front end stays pinned through the next two prints
Positioning
Long, 1-2 quarters. Conviction: Medium. Carry is against you in a steepener. Patience costs money here.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
2 commentsThe second point is the one most people are going to skip over.
Good timing — was just reworking my TLT sizing this morning.