Reading ASML through the equipment data

The thesis

HBM demand is pulling the whole supply chain forward, and ASML sits in the path.

Lead times and utilisation say we're earlier in the cycle than sentiment implies.

What I'm watching

• ASML gross margin into the next guide
• memory spot vs contract pricing
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on ASML, 2-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: High. The cycle is volatile — I trade with defined risk and room to be early.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.