The dot plot is doing the tightening for them
Financial conditions eased faster than the committee wanted — that gets talked back.
Free 6 min read
TLTDXY
Today's market movers
Delayed quotes · 3 up · 3 downLatest in macro
View feedThe dollar smile is flattening
Both tails of the smile need a growth shock. We don't have one.
Free 5 min read
The steepener has more room than consensus thinks
Front end is anchored. The term premium rebuild is the trade.
Free 7 min read
What a steeper curve means for TIP
Liquidity is tightening at the margin even as risk assets pretend otherwise.
Free 10 min read
TIPTLT
Why the long end is mispriced into SHY
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on SHY. Subscribe to read on.
Paid 7 min read
SHYTLT
TLT: positioning for the next CPI print
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on TLT. Subscribe to read on.
Paid 10 min read
TLTDXY
Trimming duration — my IEF exit plan
Positioning is one-sided into the print, which is exactly when the surprise hurts most.
Free 7 min read
IEFTLT