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Elliot Vance

Long-term compounders

Elliot Vance

Patient, concentrated, valuation-aware. Monthly memos on durable compounders and portfolio construction.

Verified@compounders41 subscribersSince May 2026

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Track record

· last 30 days Verified
Shares
-84.6%Verified cumulative return · 8 closed
63%Win rate
-9.0%Avg return
+5.1%Best call
+3.5%Avg win
-29.8%Avg loss
1LStreak
12dAvg hold

Closed calls

8 in 30 days
Copper (CPER)monthlyLong
$295.73 → $39.56 · May 29–Jun 14 · 16d hold
-86.6%
AAPLmonthlyShort
$251.54 → $239.72 · May 20–Jun 5 · 16d hold
+4.7%
Dow Jones (DIA)weeklyShort
$274.81 → $274.92 · May 24–Jun 1 · 8d hold
-0.0%
NVDAmonthlyLong
$497.95 → $512.00 · May 22–May 29 · 7d hold
+2.8%
Copper (CPER)monthlyShort
$147.45 → $144.49 · May 10–May 23 · 13d hold
+2.0%
Crude Oil (WTI) (USO)Long
$232.97 → $239.58 · May 5–May 20 · 15d hold
+2.8%
NVDAdailyLong
$119.38 → $115.95 · May 9–May 19 · 10d hold
-2.9%
Natural Gas (UNG)Long
$104.58 → $109.87 · May 8–May 19 · 11d hold
+5.1%
+Shares vs options — what's the difference?
SharesYou own the stock. The return is the underlying's move (entry → exit), linear, and you can hold as long as you like. Steadier, lower leverage.
OptionsYou buy a contract (a call or put at a strike, expiring on a date). The return is on the premium — leveraged (a small stock move can be a huge % on the option) and time-sensitive (value decays toward expiry). Higher risk and reward; here the premium is modeled, not self-reported.

Live calls

0 open
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5 notes 10-name compounder book3-10 years average holdPosition sizing
PaidMega-cap TechGOOGLApr 11

Why GOOGL still compounds from here

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on GOOGL. Subscribe to read on.

Neutral / hedgedHigh convictionPosition sizing risk 8 min read
GOGOOGLLoading delayed quote
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PaidMega-cap TechCOSTApr 6

COST: the AI capex question

Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on COST. Subscribe to read on.

ShortLow convictionPosition sizing risk 7 min read
COCOSTLoading delayed quote
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FreeMega-cap TechVMar 31

Why V still compounds from here

Valuation finally rhymes with the growth runway after the de-rate.

ShortHigh convictionPosition sizing risk 9 min read
VVLoading delayed quote
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FreeMega-cap TechCOSTMar 13

COST — trimming into strength

Ad reacceleration plus margin discipline is a combination the market keeps doubting.

ShortMedium convictionPosition sizing risk 9 min read
COCOSTLoading delayed quote
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FreeMega-cap TechVMar 7

Is V's multiple finally fair?

Capex is front-loaded but the return profile is clearer than the bears claim.

Neutral / hedgedHigh convictionPosition sizing risk 7 min read
VVLoading delayed quote
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