Real-time bank payments are a slow threat, and slow threats get priced late

Account-to-account payment systems are spreading, some of them backed by central banks and bank consortiums. They will not replace card networks quickly, and that slowness is exactly why the risk tends to be priced only once it is obvious.

A threat that moves at checkout speed

Card networks sit between the customer's bank and the merchant, and they are paid for it. A system that moves money directly from account to account, instantly and cheaply, removes the need for that middle step. Merchants have every reason to steer customers toward it.

Adoption is slow because card habits, rewards and fraud protection are sticky. Slow is not the same as never.

What I'm watching

• Merchant acceptance of account-to-account payment at checkout
• Incentives offered to customers who pay that way
• Regulatory backing for real-time payment schemes

Where I stand

Short, on a threat the valuation does not price at all. The business is superb; its toll road now has a slow-moving detour.

What would change my mind

Real-time payments staying confined to person-to-person transfers. If they never reach the checkout in size, the detour stays a footpath.