Why LMT's build rate re-rates it
Book-to-bill above one for several quarters is the tell here.
LMT8 May· 4 min
Conor Walsh
5 notes · 10 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Backlogs, build rates, and defence budgets. Industrials with multi-year visibility.
Get more from Conor
Live calls, the full archive and the subscriber room from $22/month
Latest note
Notes
5Why RTX's build rate re-rates it
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on RTX. Subscribe to read on.
RTX14 Apr· 11 min
RTX: backlog gives multi-year visibility
Build-rate normalisation flows straight to margins at this point in the cycle.
RTX7 Apr· 3 min
BA
FreeBA: backlog gives multi-year visibility
Defence budgets provide a floor under the order book regardless of macro.
BA30 Mar· 10 min
LMT — the defence budget tailwind
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on LMT. Subscribe to read on.
LMT28 Mar· 4 min
Membership
Free follower$0
- Public notes in your feed
- New-post notifications
- The verified track record
Free posts land in your feed either way.
Subscriber
Every note in full, plus the archive
Live calls — entry, conviction, exit
Subscriber room & comments
- Live calls
- 1
- Closed · 30d
- 8
Cancel anytime. Free posts stay free either way.
$22 / month
Billed monthly. Switch or cancel anytime.
Immediate access · refundable within 14 days · Terms
Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares+14.3%
Cumulative Return · 5 Closed
80%
Win Rate
+4.8%
Best Call
7d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 8 in 30 Days
JPM Long
$152.31 → $158.98 · Jul 23 – Jul 26 · 3d Hold
+4.4%
ASML Long
$232.69 → $243.23 · Jul 11 – Jul 21 · 9d Hold
+4.5%
TSM Call $235.07
$1.58 → $1.68 · Jul 15 – Jul 20 · 5d Hold · exp Jul 27
+6.3%
PYPL Long
$187.10 → $190.69 · Jul 9 – Jul 20 · 11d Hold
+1.9%
AVGO Put $180.39
$11.44 → $11.65 · Jul 13 – Jul 17 · 4d Hold · exp Jul 24
+1.9%
AVGO Long
$399.69 → $391.98 · Jul 12 – Jul 17 · 4d Hold
-1.9%
META Long
$133.73 → $140.19 · Jul 9 – Jul 16 · 8d Hold
+4.8%
GOOGL Put $410.02
$10.64 → $11.24 · Jul 9 – Jul 13 · 4d Hold · exp Jul 20
+5.7%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
+4.6%
Avg Modeled Return · 3 Closed
100%
Win Rate
+6.3%
Best Call
4d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.