A duopoly with a queue is still a duopoly

Airlines that want new narrowbody aircraft have two suppliers and a long wait for either. Production problems cost time and money, and they have not changed the shape of the industry underneath.

Why the queue is an asset

A delivery slot is scarce. An airline that cancels an order does not move to the back of a short line at a competitor; it joins a long one. That is why order books hold up through production trouble that would empty the order book of almost any other manufacturer.

The cost of the trouble is real: delayed cash, compensation, and a factory that has to rebuild confidence one delivery at a time. The structure is what survives it.

What I'm watching

• Monthly deliveries, which are the cash
• Regulator comments on production rate increases
• Supplier quality issues, which are where the next delay usually starts

Where I stand

Long, on the view that the order book outlasts the problems. The path is slow, and a duopoly does not need to be fast to be valuable.

What would change my mind

Airlines converting existing orders to the competitor in size. Delays are expensive. Defections would be structural, and that is the only kind of damage the queue does not absorb.