MSFT
FreeCapex is a promise, depreciation is the bill
The shares traded at 498.00, -1.80% today. Enormous capital spending has been treated as a growth signal. It is also a cost that arrives later, on a schedule.
MSFT23 Sept· 4 min
Priya NairDemo account
Following the cash: ad cycles, AI capex, and valuation ranges across the platforms that move the index.
- Handle
- @megacapnotes
- Subscribers
- 71
- Publishing since
- May 2026
Subscribe to Priya Nair
Free — Priya's posts land in your feed.
Track Record
Prices recorded by CrumpertLast 30 days
−1.9%
Return across 13 closed calls · 6 closed up
Options (modeled): 3 calls · 0 up · average −56.1%
ORCLLong
$149.20 → $136.94 · Sep 22 – Oct 1
MSFTLong
$498.00 → $509.36 · Sep 23 – Sep 29
AVGOShort
$347.30 → $350.37 · Sep 17 – Sep 25
Show all 16 calls
ORCLLong
$150.59 → $149.20 · Sep 17 – Sep 22
ORCLCall $162
$9.79 → $1.97 · Sep 9 – Sep 21
NVDAShort
$212.17 → $222.27 · Sep 15 – Sep 18
AMZNLong
$256.78 → $253.71 · Sep 11 – Sep 18
AVGOShort
$364.38 → $339.27 · Sep 9 – Sep 15
NVDACall $230
$10.71 → $1.91 · Sep 4 – Sep 15
MSFTLong
$501.02 → $505.41 · Sep 1 – Sep 14
GOOGLLong
$332.60 → $349.39 · Sep 10 – Sep 14
GOOGLCall $335
$18.65 → $17.49 · Sep 2 – Sep 11
ORCLShort
$151.94 → $161.63 · Aug 27 – Sep 9
AVGOLong
$371.54 → $368.56 · Aug 27 – Sep 8
METALong
$578.54 → $613.48 · Sep 1 – Sep 8
AMZNLong
$254.92 → $258.51 · Sep 1 – Sep 4
Live calls are for subscribers. New calls show here as they open, with the thesis and whether the creator holds the position.
These are this creator’s own past results. Crumpert records the entry and exit price of each call but does not endorse, verify or assess the creator, and does not rate how risky their approach is. Opinion, not advice; not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Prices are delayed third-party data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Posts
7MSFT
FreeThe moment capex turns into cash flow is the whole question
Every mega-cap has spent heavily on AI capacity. The market is now asking one thing: when does the spending start returning cash.
MSFT24 Jul· 2 min
GOOGL
SubscribersOwning the model, the chips and the distribution is a rare combination
The three layers I value separately, and why together they are worth more.
GOOGL18 Jul· 2 min
AMZN
FreeFree cash flow is where the capex bill lands first
Earnings can keep rising through a heavy spending cycle. Free cash flow cannot, and it is the number that pays for buybacks and patience.
AMZN13 May· 2 min
MSFT
SubscribersInfrastructure-heavy growth dilutes gross margin, by design
How I separate mix dilution from genuine margin pressure.
MSFT15 Apr· 2 min
Retail margins are the swing factor in a cloud story
The retail cost lines I track, and how much each moves total profit.
AMZN14 Apr· 2 min
MSFT
SubscribersCloud revenue and cloud capex are both growing, and the ratio is the story
The capex-to-revenue ratio I track by quarter, and the range I think is sustainable.
MSFT7 Mar· 2 min