MSFT
FreeAI capex is finally a cash-flow story
Depreciation is about to show up in earnings, and the market hasn't modelled it.
MSFT24 Jul· 8 min
Priya Nair Verified
6 notes · 71 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Following the cash: ad cycles, AI capex, and valuation ranges across the platforms that move the index.
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AMZN earnings preview: what I'm watching (Part 2)
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Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares+509.2%
Cumulative Return · 7 Closed
86%
Win Rate
+44.7%
Best Call
10d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 8 in 30 Days
V Long
$285.54 → $263.10 · Jul 13 – Jul 23 · 10d Hold
-7.9%
SCHW Long
$295.66 → $427.88 · Jul 11 – Jul 20 · 9d Hold
+44.7%
TSM Put $379.62
$4.56 → $6.30 · Jun 26 – Jul 14 · 19d Hold · exp Jul 21
+38.1%
AMD Long
$46.82 → $61.86 · Jun 30 – Jul 8 · 8d Hold
+32.1%
SCHW Short
$212.08 → $128.29 · Jun 21 – Jul 8 · 17d Hold
+39.5%
AMZN Long
$52.29 → $69.45 · Jul 2 – Jul 7 · 5d Hold
+32.8%
AMD Short
$404.78 → $249.10 · Jun 16 – Jul 2 · 16d Hold
+38.5%
S&P 500 (SPY) Long
$378.75 → $510.44 · Jun 25 – Jul 2 · 7d Hold
+34.8%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
+38.1%
Avg Modeled Return · 1 Closed
100%
Win Rate
+38.1%
Best Call
19d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.