The moment capex turns into cash flow is the whole question

Every large platform has spent heavily on AI capacity, and the market has largely given them the benefit of the doubt. The question has narrowed to one thing: when does the spending start returning cash, and which company gets there first.

The turn is visible in a few numbers

When capacity starts paying, a few things happen together. Revenue from AI services grows faster than the capacity added to serve it. Utilisation of new data centres rises. Capex guidance stops rising as steeply, because demand is being met rather than chased.

None of those needs a forecast. They are reported, and the turn will show up in them before it shows up in the narrative.

What I'm watching

• AI revenue against capacity added
• Utilisation commentary on new data centres
• The slope of capital spending guidance

Where I stand

Watching. The spending is visible; the returns are starting to appear and are not yet decisive.

What would change my mind

A quarter where AI revenue growth clearly outpaces capacity growth. That is the turn from building to earning, and it would settle the question in the platforms' favour.