TSM
SubscribersFoundry pricing power is quietly extraordinary
Subscribers get the full breakdown, the levels, and the position sizing.
TSM24 Jul· 7 min
Lena Brandt
5 notes · 15 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Deep dives on WFE, HBM, and the supply chain behind the chips everyone talks about.
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Notes
5LRCX
SubscribersLRCX and the memory upcycle
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on LRCX. Subscribe to read on.
LRCX26 Mar· 3 min
AMAT
SubscribersThe AMAT inventory turn I'm watching
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on AMAT. Subscribe to read on.
AMAT20 Mar· 11 min
ASML
SubscribersThe ASML inventory turn I'm watching
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on ASML. Subscribe to read on.
ASML15 Mar· 9 min
LRCX
FreeLRCX and the memory upcycle (Part 2)
Lead times and utilisation say we're earlier in the cycle than sentiment implies.
LRCX5 Mar· 9 min
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Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares-36.8%
Cumulative Return · 7 Closed
0%
Win Rate
-3.4%
Best Call
15d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 9 in 30 Days
AAPL Short
$184.85 → $198.18 · Jul 1 – Jul 21 · 20d Hold
-7.2%
NFLX Call $263.73
$12.40 → $11.89 · Jul 6 – Jul 19 · 12d Hold · exp Jul 26
-4.1%
GOOGL Short
$331.19 → $359.51 · Jun 27 – Jul 16 · 19d Hold
-8.6%
SCHW Long
$417.10 → $383.19 · Jul 4 – Jul 16 · 12d Hold
-8.1%
AMD Long
$61.33 → $59.22 · Jun 30 – Jul 14 · 13d Hold
-3.4%
V Long
$196.51 → $186.15 · Jun 28 – Jul 12 · 14d Hold
-5.3%
ASML Short
$287.57 → $304.36 · Jun 17 – Jul 4 · 17d Hold
-5.8%
S&P 500 (SPY) Long
$404.46 → $380.88 · Jun 26 – Jul 2 · 6d Hold
-5.8%
MU Put $107.63
$3.92 → $5.57 · Jun 18 – Jun 30 · 13d Hold · exp Jul 7
+42.1%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
+19.0%
Avg Modeled Return · 2 Closed
50%
Win Rate
+42.1%
Best Call
12d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.