Front end trades are a bet on the calendar, not the economy
Short duration traded at 81.12, -0.01% on the session. The two-year is arithmetic on meeting dates, and it gets discussed as though it were a growth forecast.
Free 3 min read
SHYIEF
Stock
IEF
IEF
Delayed
Notes mentioning IEF
6The belly of the curve is where policy error shows up first
Intermediate duration traded at 89.54, +0.02% today. Five to ten years out is where the market prices the mistake rather than the intention.
Free 3 min read
IEFTLT
The long end is not pricing a recession, whatever the headlines say
Long duration traded at 82.19, -0.12% today. A steepening curve and a recession bid are not the same thing, and conflating them costs money.
Free 4 min read
TLTIEF
The dollar's floor is a policy choice, not a market one
The dollar proxy changed hands at 28.06 this morning, +0.11% on the session. The more useful question is who sets the floor, not where it sits.
Free 4 min read
UUPTLT
Bonds hedge equities only when inflation is quiet
The idea that bonds rise when stocks fall depends on inflation staying calm. When inflation is the worry, both fall together.
Free 2 min read
IEFTLT
Rate cuts priced too early get handed back
When the market prices rate cuts well ahead of the central bank, the intermediate part of the curve is the first place the disappointment shows.
Free 2 min read
IEFTLT