Front end trades are a bet on the calendar, not the economy
Short duration traded at 81.12, -0.01% on the session. The two-year is arithmetic on meeting dates, and it gets discussed as though it were a growth forecast.
Free 3 min read
SHYIEF
Stock
SHY
SHY
Delayed
Notes mentioning SHY
5The long end is not pricing a recession, whatever the headlines say
Long duration traded at 82.19, -0.12% today. A steepening curve and a recession bid are not the same thing, and conflating them costs money.
Free 4 min read
TLTIEF
Inflation-protected bonds still lose when real yields rise
Buyers of inflation-protected bonds think they have bought safety from inflation. They have also bought duration, and real yields can move against them.
Free 2 min read
TIPTLT
Short-dated bonds reward patience when the next move is a cut
The front-end pricing I track against the likely path of policy.
Paid 2 min read
SHYTLT
Real yields are the honest measure of how tight policy is
The real yield levels I think separate tight from neutral.
Paid 2 min read
TIPTLT