Trimming duration — my IEF exit plan

The thesis

Positioning is one-sided into the print, which is exactly when the surprise hurts most.

The curve has flattened past what growth justifies — I'm leaning the other way.

What I'm watching

• IEF reaction into the auction
• DXY holding its trend line
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Neutral / hedged on IEF, 2-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: Low. Policy surprises cut both ways; defined risk only.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.