What a steeper curve means for IEF

The thesis

Liquidity is tightening at the margin even as risk assets pretend otherwise.

Positioning is one-sided into the print, which is exactly when the surprise hurts most.

What I'm watching

• IEF reaction into the auction
• 2s10s past the recent range
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Short on IEF, 2-8 weeks horizon. Conviction: Low. Policy surprises cut both ways; defined risk only.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.