The belly of the curve is where policy error shows up first
Intermediate duration traded at 89.54, +0.02% today. Five to ten years out is where the market prices the mistake rather than the intention.
Free 3 min read
IEFTLT
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UUP
UUP
Delayed
Notes mentioning UUP
6The dollar's floor is a policy choice, not a market one
The dollar proxy changed hands at 28.06 this morning, +0.11% on the session. The more useful question is who sets the floor, not where it sits.
Free 4 min read
UUPTLT
The dollar smile is flattening, and the middle is the weak part
The dollar tends to strengthen when the US outperforms and when the world panics. In between, it softens. The middle of that smile is getting wider.
Free 2 min read
Long bonds need inflation to become boring
The inflation components I watch for the turn to boring.
Paid 2 min read
TLTUUP
Hedging costs decide whether foreign buyers take the dollar with the bond
The hedged versus unhedged arithmetic I track for foreign buyers.
Paid 2 min read
UUPTLT
Rate differentials explain the dollar until risk appetite takes over
Most of the time the dollar follows the gap between US rates and everyone else's. In a scare, it follows fear instead, and the model stops working.
Free 2 min read
UUPTLT