FreeJPMJul 16
Deposit costs have peaked
The repricing cycle is done. NIM expansion from here is mechanical.
Tomas Rivera
VerifiedRegional banks, NIM, credit normalisation, and the payments stack. Balance-sheet risk in plain English.
Handle
@bankspread
Subscribers
19
Publishing Since
May 2026
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Posts
7FreeVJul 16
Payments volume growth is decoupling from retail
Cross-border is carrying the whole print now.
PaidJPMMay 25
JPM: NIM has bottomed
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on JPM. Subscribe to read on.
FreePYPLMay 10
PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared
Credit normalisation is being mistaken for credit deterioration — there's a gap.
FreePYPLApr 2
PYPL — deposits are stickier than feared (Part 2)
Deposit betas are behaving better than the bear case modeled.
FreeBACMar 29
Reading BAC into the next print
Net interest margin looks to have troughed, and the market hasn't repriced it.
PaidPYPLMar 11
Reading PYPL into the next print
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on PYPL. Subscribe to read on.
Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares+3.9%
Cumulative Return · 1 Closed
100%
Win Rate
+3.9%
Best Call
3d
Average Hold
Equity curve appears after 2+ closed calls.
Closed Calls · 1 in 30 Days
V Long
$352.60 → $366.20 · Jul 7 – Jul 10 · 3d Hold
+3.9%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.