IEF
FreeThe belly of the curve is where policy error shows up first
Intermediate duration traded at 89.54, +0.02% today. Five to ten years out is where the market prices the mistake rather than the intention.
IEF29 Sept· 3 min
Amara OkaforDemo account
Central-bank reaction functions, dollar liquidity, and rates positioning for private investors. Clear scenarios, clearer invalidation levels.
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- May 2026
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Track Record
Prices recorded by CrumpertLast 30 days
−2.1%
Return across 14 closed calls · 5 closed up
Options (modeled): 5 calls · 0 up · average −37.4%
UUPShort
$28.48 → $28.70 · Sep 21 – Sep 29
TLTLong
$81.25 → $79.38 · Sep 18 – Sep 28
Gold (GLD)Call $390
$15.07 → $13.66 · Sep 16 – Sep 23
Show all 19 calls
SHYLong
$81.34 → $81.29 · Sep 14 – Sep 21
UUPPut $28
$0.06 → $0.01 · Sep 15 – Sep 21
Gold (GLD)Call $395
$14.98 → $13.07 · Sep 10 – Sep 21
EEMLong
$65.72 → $68.83 · Sep 16 – Sep 21
FXELong
$107.01 → $105.99 · Sep 11 – Sep 18
S&P 500 (SPY)Put $760
$9.71 → $8.06 · Sep 9 – Sep 17
TIPLong
$107.05 → $105.39 · Sep 8 – Sep 16
XLFShort
$56.87 → $56.85 · Sep 10 – Sep 15
TLTCall $82
$1.07 → $0.34 · Sep 2 – Sep 14
FXYLong
$58.87 → $59.68 · Sep 3 – Sep 11
IEFLong
$92.10 → $91.18 · Sep 1 – Sep 10
S&P 500 (SPY)Short
$770.19 → $762.40 · Sep 4 – Sep 9
Gold (GLD)Long
$408.89 → $403.35 · Aug 28 – Sep 9
UUPShort
$28.02 → $28.08 · Aug 27 – Sep 4
HYGShort
$79.81 → $79.21 · Aug 31 – Sep 3
TLTLong
$83.30 → $81.95 · Aug 26 – Sep 2
Live calls are for subscribers. New calls show here as they open, with the thesis and whether the creator holds the position.
These are this creator’s own past results. Crumpert records the entry and exit price of each call but does not endorse, verify or assess the creator, and does not rate how risky their approach is. Opinion, not advice; not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Prices are delayed third-party data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Posts
10UUP
FreeThe dollar's floor is a policy choice, not a market one
The dollar proxy changed hands at 28.06 this morning, +0.11% on the session. The more useful question is who sets the floor, not where it sits.
UUP8 Sept· 4 min
MSFT
VideoChart walkthrough: the MSFT levels I'm watching into the close
A short chart walkthrough of the MSFT levels that matter today.
MSFT28 Jul· 2 min
TLT
FreeThe dot plot is doing the tightening for them
A central bank that projects fewer cuts than the market expects can tighten conditions without moving rates at all.
TLT26 Jul· 2 min
UUP
FreeThe dollar smile is flattening, and the middle is the weak part
The dollar tends to strengthen when the US outperforms and when the world panics. In between, it softens. The middle of that smile is getting wider.
UUP20 Jul· 2 min
TLT
SubscribersLong bonds need inflation to become boring
The inflation components I watch for the turn to boring.
TLT15 May· 2 min
IEF
FreeBonds hedge equities only when inflation is quiet
The idea that bonds rise when stocks fall depends on inflation staying calm. When inflation is the worry, both fall together.
IEF13 May· 2 min
UUP
SubscribersHedging costs decide whether foreign buyers take the dollar with the bond
The hedged versus unhedged arithmetic I track for foreign buyers.
UUP9 May· 2 min
Rate differentials explain the dollar until risk appetite takes over
Most of the time the dollar follows the gap between US rates and everyone else's. In a scare, it follows fear instead, and the model stops working.
UUP9 Apr· 2 min
Rate cuts priced too early get handed back
When the market prices rate cuts well ahead of the central bank, the intermediate part of the curve is the first place the disappointment shows.
IEF26 Mar· 2 min