FreeTLT6 min read
The dot plot is doing the tightening for them
TLT
Delayed
DXY
Delayed
The thesis
Two cuts are priced by year-end and the data hasn't cooperated. Every easing of financial conditions since March has been met with firmer language, not softer.
What I'm watching
- Real yields at the 10y point
- Trade-weighted dollar, not just DXY
- The 5y5y breakeven drifting above 2.4%
Positioning
Short, 4-8 weeks. Conviction: High. Rates move on positioning as much as data — size accordingly.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
2 commentsBeen waiting for someone to write this up properly. Thanks.
Clearest framing of TLT I've read this month.