AMD
FreeSecond place in a duopoly is a genuinely difficult business
It traded at 607.67, -1.27% on the session. Being the credible alternative is worth a great deal to customers and less than people assume to shareholders.
AMD30 Sept· 4 min
Kenji AoyamaDemo account
Foundry capacity, memory pricing, and equipment demand. Timing the semi cycle without the hype.
- Handle
- @chipcycle
- Subscribers
- 57
- Publishing since
- May 2026
Subscribe to Kenji Aoyama
Free — Kenji's posts land in your feed.
Track Record
Prices recorded by CrumpertLast 30 days
+23.0%
Return across 11 closed calls · 6 closed up
Options (modeled): 1 call · 0 up · average −29.6%
INTCLong
$123.86 → $116.12 · Sep 22 – Sep 29
QCOMLong
$187.80 → $198.27 · Sep 15 – Sep 22
MRVLLong
$244.25 → $262.36 · Sep 18 – Sep 22
Show all 12 calls
AVGOLong
$344.72 → $364.54 · Sep 14 – Sep 22
AVGOLong
$357.61 → $364.54 · Sep 18 – Sep 22
TXNLong
$258.92 → $266.64 · Sep 8 – Sep 18
SOXXLong
$519.86 → $497.40 · Sep 4 – Sep 14
NVDALong
$220.78 → $218.29 · Aug 31 – Sep 11
INTCLong
$90.05 → $100.32 · Sep 2 – Sep 10
AVGOLong
$367.24 → $364.38 · Sep 2 – Sep 9
MRVLPut $215
$26.96 → $18.98 · Aug 28 – Sep 8
QCOMLong
$170.48 → $169.96 · Aug 31 – Sep 2
Live calls are for subscribers. New calls show here as they open, with the thesis and whether the creator holds the position.
These are this creator’s own past results. Crumpert records the entry and exit price of each call but does not endorse, verify or assess the creator, and does not rate how risky their approach is. Opinion, not advice; not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Prices are delayed third-party data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Posts
8MU
FreeMemory is a commodity and everyone keeps forgetting it
Memory traded at 1014.74, +4.46% today. Every cycle, the story is that this time capacity discipline holds. It has not yet.
MU8 Sept· 4 min
NVDA
SubscribersSelling the whole rack changes what a chip company is worth
How I value the systems business separately from the chips inside it.
NVDA25 Jul· 2 min
MU
FreeMemory contract prices move before the word upcycle appears
By the time memory makers describe an upcycle, contract prices have usually been rising for a while. The prices are the cycle; the word is a lagging indicator.
MU15 Jul· 2 min
ASML
FreeLumpy orders and a smooth multiple do not sit well together
The machines are so expensive that a handful of orders moves a whole quarter. The shares are valued as if the quarters were smooth.
ASML17 May· 2 min
Shortages end, and margins are the first thing to notice
The lead-time and gross-margin signals I watch for the end of a shortage.
NVDA13 May· 2 min
The customer's capital plan is the supplier's forecast
An equipment supplier does not need to forecast chip demand. Its customers do that for it, in public, every time they set a capital budget.
ASML1 May· 2 min
Channel inventory is the chip cycle's early warning
The inventory-day measures I track across the PC and server channel.
AMD23 Apr· 2 min