XOM
FreeDiesel cracks are telling a different story
The barrel says slowdown. The distillate market says otherwise.
XOM19 Jul· 6 min
Greta Lindqvist Verified
6 notes · 25 subscribers · publishing since May 2026
Inventories, spreads, and capital discipline across integrateds and E&Ps. The barrel, decoded.
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Notes
6LNG
FreeNatural gas storage is misleading everyone
The absolute number looks bearish. The regional split doesn't.
LNG14 Jul· 5 min
OXY: capital discipline is the alpha
The market is pricing a recession the physical data doesn't show yet.
OXY26 May· 6 min
SLB
SubscribersThe SLB setup the barrel bears miss
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on SLB. Subscribe to read on.
SLB18 Apr· 8 min
Why SLB screens cheap on FCF
Capital discipline is finally structural, and FCF yields reflect disbelief.
SLB31 Mar· 6 min
SLB: distributions are covered
Subscribers get the full thesis, the levels, and my positioning on SLB. Subscribe to read on.
SLB15 Mar· 11 min
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Track Record
VerifiedLast 30 Days · Shares-4.7%
Cumulative Return · 10 Closed
80%
Win Rate
+1.6%
Best Call
2d
Average Hold
100
Closed Calls · 16 in 30 Days
COIN Long
$361.10 → $365.32 · Jul 25 – Jul 26 · 1d Hold
+1.2%
GS Call $128.9
$9.48 → $9.56 · Jul 21 – Jul 24 · 3d Hold · exp Jul 31
+0.9%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Long
$212.05 → $214.62 · Jul 18 – Jul 20 · 3d Hold
+1.2%
V Short
$199.31 → $220.16 · Jul 16 – Jul 17 · 1d Hold
-10.5%
MA Long
$378.02 → $382.67 · Jul 12 – Jul 15 · 3d Hold
+1.2%
ASML Short
$50.09 → $49.75 · Jul 13 – Jul 14 · 2d Hold
+0.7%
S&P 500 (SPY) Long
$390.49 → $392.25 · Jul 12 – Jul 13 · 1d Hold
+0.5%
CRM Call $51.42
$8.04 → $8.12 · Jul 9 – Jul 12 · 3d Hold · exp Jul 19
+1.0%
OXY Long
$47.20 → $45.90 · Jul 5 – Jul 11 · 6d Hold
-2.8%
TSM Long
$402.54 → $407.37 · Jul 9 – Jul 10 · 2d Hold
+1.2%
META Call $422.42
$11.18 → $11.23 · Jul 8 – Jul 9 · 1d Hold · exp Jul 16
+0.4%
XOM Long
$40.06 → $40.69 · Jul 7 – Jul 9 · 2d Hold
+1.6%
SCHW Short
$278.41 → $273.98 · Jul 3 – Jul 5 · 2d Hold
+1.6%
CVX Call $230.99
$3.64 → $3.67 · Jul 1 – Jul 2 · 2d Hold · exp Jul 9
+0.9%
CRM Call $79.62
$7.78 → $7.83 · Jun 30 – Jul 2 · 1d Hold · exp Jul 9
+0.6%
COIN Call $202.54
$13.35 → $13.48 · Jun 29 – Jul 1 · 2d Hold · exp Jul 8
+1.0%
Live Calls Are Subscriber-Only
The verified record above is public. Subscribe to see live calls as they open — entry, conviction, settlement, and the full thesis.
OptionsModeled
+0.8%
Avg Modeled Return · 6 Closed
100%
Win Rate
+1.0%
Best Call
2d
Average Hold
0%
Each bar is one closed option call's modeled return, oldest to newest. Premiums are modeled with Black-Scholes from the live underlying + its historical volatility, and settle at intrinsic value on expiry — a consistent estimate, not exact traded fills.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Figures are computed automatically from third-party market data and may contain errors; option figures are modeled, not traded fills. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.