FreeLNG5 min read
Natural gas storage is misleading everyone
LNG
Delayed
The thesis
Aggregate storage looks comfortable, but the constraint is deliverability into export capacity, not total gas in the ground.
What I'm watching
- Regional basis spreads
- LNG feedgas demand
- Rig count with the usual six-month lag
Positioning
Watch, 1-2 quarters. Conviction: Low. Gas is a weather trade more often than anyone admits.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
8 commentsThe second point is the one most people are going to skip over.
Not sure I buy the timing here. Feels like this needs another quarter of data before it's actionable.
Good timing — was just reworking my LNG sizing this morning.
What's the invalidation level you're using on LNG?
Fair pushback. I'd agree if positioning were more extreme, but the flow data doesn't show that yet.
For anyone tracking this, the data drops Thursday pre-market.
This lines up with what I'm seeing in the LNG tape.
The footnote disclosure in the last filing supports this read, for what it's worth.