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FreeOXY6 min read

OXY: capital discipline is the alpha

OXY
Delayed

The thesis

The market is pricing a recession the physical data doesn't show yet.

Capital discipline is finally structural, and FCF yields reflect disbelief.

What I'm watching

  • crack spreads
  • crack spreads
  • A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Long on OXY, 2-10 weeks horizon. Conviction: Low. A strip collapse would pressure payouts; coverage is the cushion.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.

Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Comments

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Hana Castellan·

Clearest framing of OXY I've read this month.