FreeETH5 min read
ETH staking yield versus the risk-free rate
ETH
Delayed
COIN
Delayed
The thesis
Staking yield only matters relative to T-bills. That spread was negative for most of last year and it has quietly flipped.
What I'm watching
- Validator queue length
- Net ETF creations, not headline AUM
- Stablecoin supply as the risk-appetite tell
Positioning
Long, 1-8 weeks. Conviction: Medium. Crypto volatility is brutal — small size, defined risk, always.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
12 commentsClearest framing of ETH I've read this month.
That's the part I keep going back and forth on.
I'd push back slightly: the base rate on that is worse than it feels.
Yes, and I'll post an update if that level goes.
I'd argue the risk section understates the downside if the macro backdrop shifts.
Not sure I buy the timing here. Feels like this needs another quarter of data before it's actionable.
Good point — hadn't looked at it that way.
Depends entirely on where you put the stop, I think.
Good timing — was just reworking my ETH sizing this morning.
Does this change if the next print comes in hot?
For anyone tracking this, the data drops Thursday pre-market.
The footnote disclosure in the last filing supports this read, for what it's worth.