FreeBTC4 min read
BTC: the ETF bid changed the microstructure
BTC
Delayed
The thesis
Perp funding used to lead every move. It doesn't anymore — creations and redemptions do, and they behave completely differently.
What I'm watching
- Net creations on down days specifically
- Funding rate divergence from spot
- Exchange balances continuing to fall
Positioning
Watch, 2-6 weeks. Conviction: Medium. Regime changes in microstructure break old signals. Re-baseline.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
15 commentsClearest framing of BTC I've read this month.
Fair, though I'd want to see it hold for another week before sizing up.
That's the part I keep going back and forth on.
Yes, and I'll post an update if that level goes.
The footnote disclosure in the last filing supports this read, for what it's worth.
Good question. I'd size it at a third until it confirms.
The second point is the one most people are going to skip over.
I'd argue the risk section understates the downside if the macro backdrop shifts.
What's the invalidation level you're using on BTC?
Good question. Invalidation is a weekly close back below the level I flagged — that's the whole trade.
How are you sizing this relative to the rest of the book?
Good timing — was just reworking my BTC sizing this morning.
That's the risk. I'm accepting it because the asymmetry still works.
Reasonable thesis but I think BTC is priced for most of this already.
Agreed — and the same thing showed up last cycle.