FreeFCX6 min read
Copper's deficit isn't priced yet
FCX
Delayed
The thesis
Every large producer is guiding to lower grades, and no meaningful new supply lands before the end of the decade. Meanwhile electrification demand compounds regardless of the cycle.
What I'm watching
- Treatment and refining charges
- Chinese smelter utilisation
- Inventory draws at LME and SHFE together
Positioning
Long, 2-4 quarters. Conviction: High. Commodity equities carry operational risk the metal doesn't.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
10 commentsGood timing — was just reworking my FCX sizing this morning.
Saved. The watch-list section alone is worth it.
The footnote disclosure in the last filing supports this read, for what it's worth.
Been waiting for someone to write this up properly. Thanks.
This lines up with what I'm seeing in the FCX tape.
Does this change if the next print comes in hot?
Agreed — and the same thing showed up last cycle.
This is the right question. The answer changes the whole setup.
This is the right question. The answer changes the whole setup.
Fair pushback. I'd agree if positioning were more extreme, but the flow data doesn't show that yet.