FreeWMB10 min read
Reading WMB through the spread
WMB
Delayed
The thesis
Inventories are drawing faster than the curve implies — backwardation tells the story.
Capital discipline is finally structural, and FCF yields reflect disbelief.
What I'm watching
- crack spreads
- crude inventory draws
- A clean move through the level I flag below
Positioning
Neutral / hedged on WMB, 6-36 months horizon. Conviction: Low. A demand scare hits the whole complex — defined risk.
Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.
Opinion. The author may or may not hold positions discussed. Not advice. Not a financial promotion approved under FSMA s.21. Quote data is delayed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Comments
1 commentThe second point is the one most people are going to skip over.