Reading WMB through the spread

The thesis

Inventories are drawing faster than the curve implies — backwardation tells the story.

Capital discipline is finally structural, and FCF yields reflect disbelief.

What I'm watching

• crack spreads
• crude inventory draws
• A clean move through the level I flag below

Positioning

Neutral / hedged on WMB, 6-36 months horizon. Conviction: Low. A demand scare hits the whole complex — defined risk.

Opinion, not investment advice. The author may or may not hold positions discussed.