Faster delivery changes how often people shop

When delivery gets faster, people stop saving purchases up for one big order. They buy smaller baskets more often, and a store they used for occasional purchases starts to become where they go for everyday ones.

Speed creates frequency

Next-day delivery covers planned purchases. Same-day delivery covers the things people used to pick up on the way home. Every step closer to instant pulls a new category of spending online, especially consumables that people buy often.

The cost is the network. Faster delivery needs more, smaller facilities closer to customers, and that spending comes before the frequency pays for it.

What I'm watching

• Order frequency per customer
• Growth in everyday essentials, the categories speed unlocks
• Fulfilment costs per unit, which show whether density is paying off

Where I stand

Flat. The frequency effect is real, and the cost of building it is still being paid. I would rather see unit costs fall before leaning either way.

What would change my mind

Fulfilment costs per unit falling while frequency rises. That would show the network is paying for itself, and the habit would be profitable rather than merely growing.