A brand's heat shows up in markdowns before it shows up in sales

Sales can hold up for a while after a brand cools, because promotions and wholesale partners keep product moving. What cannot hide it for long is the discounting required to keep it moving.

Full price is the signal

A brand with heat sells at full price and chases inventory. A brand losing it builds inventory and chases customers. The second shows up first in the gap between list price and the price people actually pay, long before it shows up in revenue.

Wholesale partners make this visible early. When they start discounting a brand heavily, they are telling you what their customers are telling them.

What I'm watching

• Full-price sell-through in the brand's own channels
• Discount depth at wholesale partners
• Inventory growth against sales growth

Where I stand

Flat. The brand is strong, and the markdown picture is mixed enough that I do not want to guess which way it breaks.

What would change my mind

Discounting narrowing across channels while inventory falls. That is a brand regaining pricing power, and it tends to show up in margins before anyone writes about it.