Hashprice is the number a miner's shares actually follow

Miners get described as a bet on BTC. What their revenue really tracks is hashprice: how much each unit of computing power earns per day. The coin price is one input into it. Network difficulty and transaction fees are the others.

One number, three inputs

When the coin price rises faster than difficulty, hashprice rises and every machine earns more. When difficulty rises faster, hashprice falls even in a rising market. Transaction fees add a volatile third component that spikes when the network is busy.

A miner's shares respond to hashprice far more directly than to the coin price, which is why they sometimes lag a rally.

What I'm watching

• Hashprice, daily and averaged
• Network difficulty growth
• Transaction fees as a share of miner revenue

Where I stand

Long, on hashprice rising while difficulty lags the price. That is the window where miners earn the leverage they are known for.

What would change my mind

Difficulty catching up with the price. New machines come online with a lag, and when they arrive, hashprice falls whatever the coin does.